Clinton Pollster: Trump’s Support Is ‘5 Or 6 Points Better’ Than Polls Suggest

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“The media echo chamber has, I think, made it more difficult for people to express their political views, especially to live interviewers.”

Yes, and even though the enemedia was so wildly wrong about the 2016 election, they still haven’t learned their lesson, and remain as leftist and elitist and out of touch as ever.

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“Clinton Pollster: Trump’s Support Is ‘5 Or 6 Points Better’ Than Polls Suggest,” by Chuck Ross, Daily Caller, April 28, 2017:

A top strategist on Hillary Clinton’s 2008 campaign and a longtime Clinton pollster says that President Trump’s approval rating is at least 5 or 6 points higher than polls currently show.

Writing at The Hill, Mark Penn says that polls showing that Trump has a 40 percent approval rating are the result of what he calls a “polling bubble.”

“Surveys taken from the perches in New York, Washington and Los Angeles may be obscuring rather than illuminating many of the underlying views and trends of the American electorate,” writes Penn, who started polling for Bill Clinton in 1994.

“While Trump is no FDR when it comes to forming a political coalition, a fairer reading of the polls and the election results shows his performance is probably 5 or 6 points better than is being touted and that his base of support with which he won the election remains intact.”

Penn offers several theories about why Trump’s poll numbers are artificially deflated.

Polls are moving in the direction of surveying all U.S. adults rather than past and future voters, he says. That shift picks up groups that are more likely to oppose Trump, such as illegal immigrants and young people. Trump’s numbers are also underestimated because respondents are hesitant to admit they support the former real estate mogul.

“Most polls have moved away from voters or likely voters to U.S. adults with no screen for registration or even citizenship,” Penn writes in the op-ed, also noting that polls frequently focus “on storylines and narratives critical of Trump.”

He says that major network polls survey “U.S. adults,” a much broader category than people who voted in the November election or who plan to vote in 2020.

“The non-voters include 11 million undocumented aliens and a lot of folks who liked neither candidate and stayed home, as well as younger people who have lower rates of participation. These polls should not be confused with the views of the American electorate.”

Penn then conducts a rough calculation of Trump’s actual support based on November voting tallies and recent favorability polls.

“If you look just at the past voters, Trump is holding his base,” Penn writes, pointing to a recent Washington Post poll that found 94 percent of Trump voters approve of the job he is doing.

“That would be 43.1 percent of the voting electorate,” Penn says.

“Trump then conservatively gets 10 percent approval from the remaining voters (30 percent from voters to other candidates and 8 percent among Clinton voters) which would give him another 5 percent or about 48 percent approval among the group that voted in the last election.”

“That’s a more realistic assessment.”

Penn also points to a phenomenon that many pundits now believe was at play during November’s race.

“The media echo chamber has, I think, made it more difficult for people to express their political views, especially to live interviewers,” Penn says….

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Mark Steiner
Mark Steiner
6 years ago

Polling is often deceptive. To qualify poll authenticity, statistical application is a must. We are told of “sample precincts” during elections, samples of this and samples of that. First, what is a sample? A good definition of sample is “representation of a defined population”. Since a pollster can never be totally unbiased, knowing what population constitutes his sampling helps others to understand why his poll may be skewed one way or another. Samples matter.

Location of sampling matters. Often, large urban areas receive the most poll responses. These tend to be democratic. Ask a resident of Lusk, Wyoming or Belfield, North Dakota, if residents have participate in polling. These areas are heavily Republican, and are often avoided for that reason. Additionally, city folks are “cool”.

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overboosted ✓ᴰᴱᴾᴸᴼᴿᴬᴮᴸᴱ
6 years ago

Probably higher that that.

The VERY Fake news enemedia has been on a campaign to destroy the guy since he announced.

aemoreira1981
aemoreira1981
6 years ago

Not when you look at the splits along party lines.

aemoreira1981
aemoreira1981
6 years ago

That’s still a very partisan split unless support among independents is underestmated…support along party lines being polar opposites, which is why 60 percent support is probably out of reach for Donald Trump.

Ari
Ari
6 years ago

Hushed issues, misleading articles, censorship, propaganda, indoctrination and political insults are the words which depict well the MS media.

Reporters Without Borders organization (RWB) is funded by George Soros. Over the years RWB’s private funding has come from groups and organizations such as the Open Society Institute of George Soros. Soros funds also many journalists to disseminate his (immigration) propaganda.

Reporters Without Borders (RWB), or Reporters Sans Frontières (RSF), is an international organization headquartered in Paris, France. Perhaps this “Reporters Without Borders” should be renamed as International Liars’ Club or “Reporters disseminating propaganda” or Reporters’ hushed issues or something like that.

A BBC TV news presenter in the picture.comment image

knightsstrength
knightsstrength
6 years ago

The biggest poll was the election that put Trump into office, so tell the pollsters to get out and bring back true figures

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Patriciaowestlake
6 years ago

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Drew the Infidel
Drew the Infidel
6 years ago

Agreed, but I would be more inclined to tell the pollsters they could go wipe their asses with the results of their “polling”.

@MadJewessWoman
@MadJewessWoman
6 years ago

Im not a huge Trump fan any more..
I just pray he makes the right decisions, especially in Syria.
However:
I believe his polls are much higher than even this pollster is suggesting..

Drew the Infidel
Drew the Infidel
6 years ago

The polls quoted in the lamestream media can best be described as statistical lies. Two that stand out as prime examples are the one which stated that there was a 95% chance Hillary would be elected and another claiming a 50%-38% Hillary advantage, both published the night before voting began.

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