Viva Italia! Italy Votes ‘No’ in Referendum, Renzi to Resign, Nail in Coffin for EU

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In what has becoming a stunning movement for freedom and individual rights, Italy, too has voted to overthrow the political status quo.

Projections late Sunday indicated that Italian voters have rejected proposed constitutional changes, in what if confirmed would be a stinging rebuke to the country’s leader and a victory for populists in the heartland of Europe. (WSJ)

The Trump effect.

Italy’s Referendum Could Be The Nail In The Coffin For The EU

December 4 referendum fails >> M5S comes to power >> Italians vote to leave the euro currency >> European Union collapses

The referendum is a “test of strength of the anti-Europe and anti-establishment forces in Italy,” former Italian diplomat Stefano Stefanini told The New York Times. The proposed vote would rewrite 47 of the 139 articles in the Italian constitution, which Renzi says need to be replaced to allow the government to compete with European economies.

“If Renzi’s referendum fails, it will be seen as another symbolic victory for the populists that portends greater risk for other states and the EU,” a Eurasia Group Europe analyst told The Telegraph. He continued, “It will make the EU defensive and inward-looking, and more incapable of addressing the problems that are giving rise to the populists in the first place.”

It failed. Between 57% and 61% of voters opposed constitutional changes sought by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, according to Istituto Piepoli projections.

The EU jumped the shark with the Muslim invasion of Europe and they are going down.

Italian PM Matteo Renzi to resign in wake of referendum defeat

The Express: Mr Renzi hoped Italy’s oldest bank will be bailed out by the Qatari Royal family

As voters go to the polls today to take part in their referendum, bankers at Banca Monte dei Paschi de Siena are attempting a last minute bail-out deal from bondholders, supported by the Prime Minister who has gone all out to request help.

The government has gone cap in hand to the Qatari royal family and a number of US hedge funds in the hope they can request a £4.2BN bail-out ahead of the crunch vote.

According to reports the bank has issued a voluntary bondholder debt-for-equity swap to raise £1.25bn and will further request £830m from the Qatari royal family.It has also been reported that six hedge funds, including those that belong to billionaires George Soros and John Paulson, are stepping in to offer much needed liquidity.

Ordinary Italians have been hit hard by Italy's banking crisis GETTY

Ordinary Italians have been hit hard by Italy’s banking crisis

Insiders say if the bank fails to raise enough funds US banks, including JP Morgan, Mediobanca, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch, will move into asset strip triggering a Lehman brothers style collapse.

According to reports but dependent on the result of the referendum, Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, is considering allowing a bail out.

However, new rules mean investors must first face serious right downs before Brussels steps in.

Indeed the outcome of the referendum will have a significant impact with Italy facing a potential ratings downgrade.

“My Government Ends Here” Renzi Loses Italian Referendum, Will Offer Resignation To President” –

By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, December 3, 2016:

Summary: this is what has happened so far in yet another major overthrow of the political status quo:

  1.  Italy PM Renzi lost by a large margin
  2. In a speech moments after the results were announce, Renzi confirmed he would hand in his resignation tomorrow.
  3. As Bloomberg notes, the scale of the loss and how quickly it happened cast a huge shadow on the fate of the continent headed into 2017.
  4. The EURUSD has tumbled to lows not seen since March 2015

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The rejection of Renzi’s reform means Italy’s government bonds, which have been the euro zone’s worst performers in the past six months, may drop Monday. The bond market opens at 8 a.m. Rome time (2am ET). The yield premium demanded by investors for owning the nation’s 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German bunds surged on Nov. 28 to the most since June 2015, before rebounding last week as Italian stocks also gained.

The nation’s benchmark FTSE MIB Index of shares, which start trading at 9 a.m. in Rome (3amET), has dropped about 20% this year, and may extend its decline on Monday.

So what happens next? We leave it to Doug Casey to sum it all up succinctly:

December 4 referendum fails >> M5S comes to power >> Italians vote to leave the euro currency >> European Union collapses

Here is The Wall Street Journal to explain in more detail what happens next…

New Renzi Government:

 

Italian President Sergio Mattarella could ask Mr. Renzi to reshuffle his cabinet and form a new government. However, Mr. Renzi has said in recent days that he is unlikely to accept such an option, given that he would be in a much-weakened position following the vote.

 

A Caretaker Administration:

 

Mr. Mattarella could ask someone else to lead a new government with a limited mandate to oversee the drafting of a new electoral law and pass the 2017 budget. One candidate is Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, who could help soothe markets that have been nervous about political instability following a no vote. Others include Pietro Grasso, speaker of Italy’s Senate, and Dario Franceschini, the current culture minister.

 

Electoral-Law Snarl:

 

Major political parties are pushing to change an electoral law passed last year that would give extra seats in Parliament to any party winning 40% or more of the vote. That measure was intended to make for more stable governments. Establishment politicians now worry that it could help the populist 5 Star Movement gain power and want to rewrite the rules before any new national election.

*  *  *

Update #6: Renzi’s Speech:

  • RENZI CONCEDES REFERENDUM DEFEAT, SAYING PEOPLE HAVE SPOKEN
  • ITALY PM RENZI SAYS I TAKE FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR DEFEAT
  • RENZI: “NO” LEADERS NOW HAVE GREAT RESPONSIBILITIES
  • RENZI: WE HAVE FAILED IN CONVINCING CITIZENS, WE WANTED TO WIN
  • RENZI SAYS HE WILL OFFER HIS RESIGNATION TO PRESIDENT
  • RENZI: MY GOVERNMENT ENDS HERE

*  *  *

Update #5: Renzi just tweeted to his 2.77 million followers: “Thanks to all of you anyway. In a few minutes I will be speaking to you directly from Palazzo Chigi. Long live Italy! PS Am coming, am coming….

 

 

*  *  *

Update #4: Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is likely to meet President Sergio Mattarella early Monday, as exit polls show he’s suffered a heavy defeat in a referendum on constitutional reform, according to a government official who asked not to be named. Renzi has pledged to resign if his plans to overhaul the constitution are rejected by voters.

Seems pretty clear…

 

EURUSD keeps sliding…getting close to some very srious support levels:

  • 1.0524 is Dec 2015 lows
  • 1.0518 is 11/24 lows
  • 1.0458 is Mar 2015 lows

*  *  *

Update #3: First Projections confirm exit polls – wide margin of victory for “no” defeat for Renzi…

 

 

*  *  *

Update #2: Following the exit polls and the market’s response, “Northern League” leader Salvini has called for early elections:

  • SALVINI: NO VICTORY WOULD MEAN PEOPLE DEFEATING ESTABLISHMENT
  • ITALY NORTHERN LEAGUE LEADER CALLS FOR EARLY ELECTIONS: MNI

*  *  *

Update #1: The Exit polls have begun:

  • *ITALY REFERENDUM: ‘NO’ AT 55%-59% IN EMG EXIT POLL
  • *ITALY REFERENDUM: ‘NO’ AT 55%-59% IN TECNE EXIT POLL
  • *ITALY REFERENDUM: ‘NO’ AT 54%-58% IN RAI EXIT POLL

Exit polls have at times proved unreliable in Italy, underestimating Renzi’s 2014 victory in European elections by 10 percentage points, but for now, the market seems convinced…

EURUSD is tumbling…

Some comments from anti-establishmentarians have begin:

  • LE PEN AIDE ON ITALIAN REFERENDUM RESULT TWEETS ‘IT’S A GREAT VICTORY FOR THE PEOPLE…IT’S FOR OTHER NATIONS TO BE SET FREE’

 

Turnout was high.

  • *ITALY REFERENDUM: ITALIANS ABROAD TURNOUT 30.9%:FOREIGN OFFICE

How did we get here? Here’s a quick timeline from Bloomberg’s Marco Bertacche

  • April 15, 2014: The Senate approves first version of reform, backed by Renzi allies and Berlusconi’s party
  • Jan. 31, 2015: Renzi’s candidate is elected president of the republic, prompting Berlusconi to withdraw support for reforms
  • April 12, 2016: Lower house completes approval, lacking two-thirds majority needed to avoid referendum
  • Aug. 4, 2016: Highest court accepts referendum request with more than 500,000 signatures from Yes campaign
  • Sept. 26, 2016: Renzi’s cabinet calls for Dec. 4 referendum. Decision is binding

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, Italians voted Sunday in a referendum on constitutional reforms that Premier Matteo Renzi has staked his political future on, hoping to survive the rising populist forces that have gained traction across Europe.

Renzi has said he will resign if the reforms, which he contends will modernize Italy and reduce its legendary bureaucracy, are rejected. Opposition politicians, ranging from the far-right to the far-left have vowed to press for a new government if voters reject Parliamentary legislation overhauling much of the post-war Constitution.

Even some figures in Renzi’s Democratic Party, including ex-Communists, said they’d vote against the reforms.

 

Polling stations are open from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m. local time (5pmET).

Bloomberg lays out what to expect, and when…

1500ET

Provisional turnout results for the vote as of 7 p.m. CET could indicate whether turnout is high in the South and Sicily, where anti-establishment parties are strong, which would signal bad news for Renzi. A high turnout in the Center and Northwest, his strongholds, may not be enough for him but could narrow the final margin. Renzi has indicated he’s aiming for a 60 percent turnout.

Overall turnout was around the 60% Renzi had expected, with a higher turnout in the North (more pro-Renzi) and lower turnout in the South (more anti-establishment)…

 

1800ET

Exit polls are published by at least three TV networks (RAI, LA7, Mediaset). Exit polls have often gotten it wrong in Italy. In the 2013 and 2006 general elections they overestimated the center-left’s lead by more than 5 points, and in 2008 they underestimated Silvio Berlusconi’s lead by 7 points. In the 2014 European elections, Renzi’s Democratic Party got almost 10 points more than exit polls predicted.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to speak at about midnight local time (6pmET) at his Rome residence, newswire Ansa citing his office.

1830-1845ET

First projections on counted votes may be published on TV stations. Votes will be counted continuously and updated on the Interior Ministry’s website throughout the night. A national total as well as regional and city breakdowns will be available.

1900ET

First provisional results from cities usually faster at counting votes should start coming in. Before a two-week poll blackout period, the “Yes” and “No” camps polled virtually even in the Northwest (Milan, Turin) and in the Center (Bologna), with the “No” side clearly ahead in the South (Naples) and in Sicily (Palermo). Milan could give the earliest real indication of where things are going. Traditionally a Berlusconi stronghold, it swung to center-left administrations in past years and elected a center-left mayor backing Renzi’s reforms in June. A wide lead for “No” in Milan could mean Renzi loses nationally.

 

1900-2000ET

New projections could indicate a winner before real vote counting is complete.

  • Mahou Shoujo

    The sooner the absurd notion of jack booted e.u conformity over europe is thrown in the garbage of history, the better. People work best when they can see results of their efforts benefiting them, not taken by socialists to bribe indolence supporting socialism.

    • Jimmy Savile was a Korandertha

      Now I want to see Rutte gone from the Netherlands and Hollande from France. Climaxing with the removal of Merkel, which we spoke about yesterday ;)

      • Mahou Shoujo

        That would be a very good trifecta to win.

        • Jimmy Savile was a Korandertha

          Would be wonderful… Followed by Trudeau, to make your fine country safer from Koranderthals!

          • Mahou Shoujo

            The one thing about them, is that they only stay in Canada until they can get into the United States, where there are too many already.

          • Jimmy Savile was a Korandertha

            Far too many everywhere!!

          • IzlamIsTyranny

            Is that just wishful thinking on your part?

          • Mahou Shoujo

            Around here, they seem to last a few month than move south, then further south, replacements are slow, even slower now that it is cold. Ac couple of somalis I met a few years ago headed south after about six months with the United States meting there declared eventual destination, but what can a person believe when a muslim says it?

      • IzlamIsTyranny

        A NEXIT and FRENCHIT would be a nice blow for freedom in EUrabia!

        • Jimmy Savile was a Korandertha

          Very very much so, my friend! Up vote and massive thumbs up!

    • Suresh

      Unfortunately for Italy the Leftists/liberal Italians woke up too late http://tinyurl.com/jxczqnr

      Economically , security wise Italy is in a mess and it will get lot worse before it gets any better.
      And to foolishly depend on qatar to bail you out that is worst decision.

      Best way for Italy to recover is to get out of EU and start deporting all muslim “refugees” and the Leftists Loony Pope too http://tinyurl.com/j2lwzej

      It will be best way to kick start recovery. Anything less won’t work.

      • Mahou Shoujo

        The Vatican is an independent state, so Italy has little to say about its policies, the rest, very good idea.

        • Steve

          Maybe Italy can kick the Vatican out if they want to stay in the EU.

          • IzlamIsTyranny

            I’m sure loads of Jewish carpenters from Yerushalem loved to vacation in Rome — even ones born in Nazareth.

        • Suresh

          I know but if Pope goes around lecturing Italy on taking muslim savages Italy must have the balls to tell him to take the refugees in vatican or fk off.

          No need to respect scumbags who never speak a word against atrocities muslim commit on christians but want to take more of these scumbags in.

          And he is supposed to be leader of christian faith ?

    • Jamie

      Can someone point me to the proposed constitutional changes

      • Mahou Shoujo

        What are Italians voting on?

        A package of constitutional reforms which Renzi says will make the country more governable. Italy’s two legislative chambers— the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies— currently have perfectly equal powers. This means bills can bounce back and forth between them for months and sometimes years until they are finally approved in identical form. The system was created after the war in reaction to the fascist dictatorship of Benito Mussolini, but today the Senate’s sway over legislation is blamed for the country’s time-consuming decision-making process.

        The constitutional changes being voted on will strip the Senate of many of its legislative powers by reducing the number of senators to 100 from 315, of which five will be appointed by the president and 95 will be appointed (rather than elected) by regional bodies. Another change is the clawback of decision-making powers from Italy’s 20 regional governments to the central government. This will strengthen executive power, Renzi argues, finally freeing up Italy’s government to work on reviving its moribund economy.

        Why is it so significant ?

        Renzi says he will step down if he does not win this Sunday’s referendum. If he does, a caretaker government would likely take over until early elections, which could clear the way for the populist, center left Five Star Movement to get a foothold in government, perhaps in alliance with the Euroskeptic, far-right Northern League. The fear is that these anti-establishment parties could call for a referendum on whether Italy should leave the euro.

        The other fear is market turmoil if Renzi’s changes are rejected. Recession-hit Italian banks need to raise at least $21 billion in capital in the coming months to cover losses, Reuters reports, and the country’s debts are running at 133% of GDP. Further volatility could frighten investors and savers, and push it into a financial crisis — officials and senior bankers have told a variety of media outlets that eight of Italy’s cash-strapped banks could fail in light of a “no” vote. Coming so soon after Brexit, this could be a significant nail in the coffin of the European project.

        Who is against it?

        Detractors are worried that Renzi’s reforms will give Prime Ministers too much power. The Economist has argued that a nominated Senate would likely be filled by crooked politicians from corrupt regions and municipalities. Renzi has also passed an electoral law that guarantees the largest party 54% of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies. This means that a weakened Senate and majority in the lower house will give the premier almost unlimited executive power. Even the former, and controversial, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has warned that the changes would “lead us straight toward a non-democracy.”

        As well as spying an opportunity to win power, the populist Five Star movement says the center-left prime minister is attempting do away with the country’s systems of checks and balances. Five Star— founded by comedian Beppe Grillo— started an “I Say No” tour, imploring Italians to reject the changes.

        According to the Guardian, Five Star politician Alessandro Di Battista, told a rally that the referendum was the latest ploy by the insulated political class: “This unelected senate will be constituted by the arselickers of the various parties…the election of Donald Trump is the American people’s business,” he said, the Guardian reports. “and by those who are in trouble with the courts and need parliamentary immunity. They’re sealing the system off so it can’t be changed in the future.”

      • tatka150

        Yes. Total deportation ASAP!

  • Jimmy Savile was a Korandertha

    A great moment for Italy. Another Soros stooge departing! This was yet ANOTHER anti Islam vote, in truth and thank God for this!!!!

    • She’s HOT!

      Can you send me the phone number of that hottie pictured on your avatar?
      I thank you profusely in advance.
      :)

      • Jimmy Savile was a Korandertha
        • IzlamIsTyranny

          Is she all original equipment? Or has she had some body work done?

          • Jimmy Savile was a Korandertha

            She was very sizeable originally, and had some work done in the last 12 months ;)

      • Jimmy Savile was a Korandertha

        And YES, she is great in person, shall we say….

  • EnemyOfStatists

    Somewhere, Fabrizio Quattrocchi is smiling on his fellow Italians, today.

  • Emmett

    Moslem savages are over running Europe and the western world in general , and the “ENMEDIA” wants us to ignore our ‘Lying Eyes’ ! And when TRUTH TELLERS like Pamela Geller writes the truth and shows us the truth, the traitorous Enmedia calls it “Fake News” ! These POS HUMAN GARBAGE TRAITORS are not human and we should not suffer their passing !

  • AlgorithmicAnalyst

    The Euro currency seemed to be in violation of macroeconomic principles since before it was even adopted, and haven’t seen anything since to contradict that.

  • bikerken

    Wisdom just might be taking hold in some places. Not in the middle east where their main export is ignorance and intolerance.

  • itsme

    thank you for the new layout of your site, it used to be garbage, this is fantastic, also, could you make a little altar for mr trump, because you were bad girl for him for a while, now i expect your full support for trump through and through, and everything will be good and dandy

  • soundclick.com/Globalfirm

    Qatar supports enslavement of Africans inside Qatar.
    Ban the Muhammadism-conspiracy, save lives worldwide!

    Italy, the EU, Muhammadism-conspiracy regions should be made an English-language protectorate & English should be optional official language globally.

    Ban Islam, the Muhammadism-conspiracy & save lives & profound human rights worldwide.

    Did you know: There’s slavery today of Africans in Saudi Arabia, Mauritania(25%,50%?of population), new north Sudan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Yemen, Oman, Algeria, Lebanon, Qatar (?), Pakistan, UAE, Niger, Libya, Nigeria, Chad, Mali, Somalia & elsewhere inspired by sadist, racist slaver tyrant, inventor of slavery of Africans, mass-murderer, crucifier, genital mutilationist, clitodirectomist, child-rapist & pederast, theist psychopath who burned people alive for not praying & others to extort them, Muhammad who owned Africans as slaves & said that his deity turned Africans black, so their descendants would be slaves to Arabs & Turks (Abeed means African & slave in Arabic,) (Read more about sadist, racist slaver Muhammad at WikiIslam). & IslamicState stated they want to revive enslavement of Africans in America as I’ve read here.
    Anti-African racists & Muhammadism Out of Africa!
    Ban the Muhammadism-conspiracy & democracy, save profound human rights!
    Help me to win the next election with my worldwide low-budget-campaign, for human rights & ecology, globally.

  • Steve

    Great news and fantastic post. A lot of work put into this!

  • Roar

    Good news in a nutshell.However,bad news from Austria spoiled my day.

  • IzlamIsTyranny

    Any country that begs money from muslum tyrants or apartheid states is already in trouble.

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